Viewing archive of söndag, 25 december 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Dec 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 359 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Dec 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. New Region 1387 (S22W28)
produced a M4/1N flare at 25/1816Z. This event was accompanied by
Type II (1019 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. This region grew
rapidly, ending the period as a Dao type group with Beta magnetic
characteristics. Coronagraph imagery was not yet available to
determine the characteristics of the CME. Earlier in the period, a
filament eruption occurred near N21W15. Analysis of this event
using LASCO imagery indicated a speed near 400 km/s. Evaluation of
the geoeffective potential of both the flare and filament eruption
is ongoing.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with a chance for further M-class activity from Region
1387.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An enhancement of the 10 MeV proton
flux at the ACE spacecraft was observed following the M4/1N flare
mentioned earlier.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mosly quiet on Days 1 and 2 (26-27 December).
Initial predictions are for the CME to arrive late on Day 3 (28
December), bringing unsettled to active levels with a slight chance
for minor storm conditions at high latitudes. The arrival estimate
will be refined as new data becomes available.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Dec till 28 Dec
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Dec 144 Prognoserat 26 Dec-28 Dec 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Dec 002/001 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Dec 000/001 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/007
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Dec till 28 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 25% | 40% |
Senaste nytt
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onsdag, 20 mars 2024
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Senaste inläggen
ionosphere D detection 12Filaments and prominences 67Unspecified geomagnetic activity 959Latest SC25 Predictions 105AR3654 44
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/01 | M1.9 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
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