Viewing archive of fredag, 11 november 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Nov 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 315 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 Nov 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1344 (S18W45) was the
most active sunspot group with occasional C-class flares, including
a long-duration C4/Sf at 11/0705Z associated with a partial-halo
CME. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 825 km/s, based
on SOHO/LASCO C2 images, and appeared to have a slight Earthward
component. Region 1344 showed gradual intermediate and trailer spot
development during the period. Region 1339 (N17W48) produced a
single C-class flare during the period and appeared to be in a state
of slow decay with gradual loss of intermediate spots and penumbra.
Region 1339 was classified as an Ekc and retained its beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (12 - 14 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1339.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (12
November) due to a CME arrival associated with a halo-CME observed
on 09 November. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled
to active levels on day 2 (13 November) as CME effects gradually
subside. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected
on day 3 (14 November) with weak effects possible from the
partial-halo CME observed today.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 Nov till 14 Nov
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 Nov 174 Prognoserat 12 Nov-14 Nov 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 Nov 003/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 020/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 Nov till 14 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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