Viewing archive of onsdag, 9 november 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Nov 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 313 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Nov 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. A long duration M1 flare was observed at 09/1335Z.
Associated with this event were a Type II radio sweep with an
estimated shock velocity of 750 km/s and a eruptive filament channel
with a possible Earth directed CME. This filament channel was
located between Region 1342 (N17E22) and Region 1343 (N27E37) in the
Northeast quadrant of the visible disk. Imagery is still coming in
at the time of this report, but STEREO B and SDO/AIA imagery do
indicate a CME liftoff. Region 1339 (N21W19) has some simpliciation
in its magnetic structure but still remains classified as a
beta-gamma. New Region 1345 (S24W01) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (10-12 November).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (10 November). An increase
to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (11 November) as
the effects of a CME, from 08 November, are forecast. An increase to
unsettled to active conditions on day 3 (12 November) is expected,
as the CME, associated with todays M1 flare, is expected to become
geoeffective.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Nov till 12 Nov
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 Nov 180 Prognoserat 10 Nov-12 Nov 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/003 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 005/005-010/010-015/018
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Nov till 12 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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