Viewing archive of torsdag, 3 november 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Nov 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 307 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Nov 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1339 (N18E57) produced
an X1/2B flare at 03/2027Z. In addition, the Region produced two
M-class events during the past 24 hours, an M4 at 02/2201Z and an M2
at 03/1111Z. This group has rotated more fully into view as a large,
E-type sunspot region with an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. Current estimate of the area is around 1400
millionths. Region 1338 (S14E40) is also noteworthy as it has an
area of about 375 millionths in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
However, it has only managed to produce a C-class event. The
remainder of the groups on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate but there is a chance for additional major flare
activity. The primary source of the elevated activity is expected to
be Region 1339. There may also be a contribution to the M-flare
activity from Region 1338.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Nonetheless a magnetic crochet was
clearly observed in the dayside magnetometer data in association
with the X1.9 flare.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for the
first day (04 November). There is also a slight chance for storm
level activity on this day. The increase is expected as a result of
a glancing blow from the CME that occurred on 31 October. Activity
levels are expected to be quiet to unsettled for the second day (05
November) and quiet for the third day (06 November). Note that this
forecast may need to be updated if an earthward directed CME is
observed and associated with todays X-class event.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Nov till 06 Nov
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Nov 160 Prognoserat 04 Nov-06 Nov 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 03 Nov 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Nov 007/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 015/015-008/010-005/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Nov till 06 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 25% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/06 | X4.4 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/06 | M1.5 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
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|---|---|
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