Viewing archive of fredag, 28 oktober 2011

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 301 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Oct 2011

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Three C-flares occurred during the past 24 hours, one from Region 1333 (N15W02) and two from Region 1324 (N13W63). Region 1324 showed emergence of new flux during the past 24 hours. Region 1333s growth has slowed considerably and the region is currently a small D-type sunspot group with about 50 millionths in sunspot area. Region 1330 (N08W09) continues to be the largest group on the disk with about 450 millionths area and a beta-gamma magnetic classification, but did not produce any flares. A CME was noted from the northeast limb entering the LASCO C3 field of view around 1254Z on the 27th and was associated with a filament eruption and post eruptive loop arcade in the northeast quadrant. The CME appears to be moving too far north of the ecliptic to be geoeffective. An additional CME was observed off the southwest limb and entered the C3 field of view at 0218Z on the 28th. STEREO coronagraph observations clearly showed that this was a backsided event and therefore the event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event with Regions 1330, 1324, and 1333 the most likely sources.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first part of day one (29 October). An increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected beginning late on the 29th and continuing through the first and second days (30-31 October). The increase is expected due to a high speed stream from coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Oct till 31 Oct
M-klass15%15%15%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       28 Oct 134
  Prognoserat   29 Oct-31 Oct  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        28 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Oct  004/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  003/003
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  007/008-010/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Oct till 31 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%35%35%
Små stormförhållanden05%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%15%15%

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