Viewing archive of söndag, 25 september 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Sep 25 2235 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::: SDF Nummer 268 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Sep 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Regions 1302 (N12E36) and
1303 (S28W79) each produced three M-class flares. The largest was
an M7/2N at 25/0450Z. A partial halo CME was observed at 24/1936Z
in LASCO C2 imagery which was likely associated with the M3 flare
from Region 1302 that occurred at 24/1921Z. The event had an
associated Type II (1369 km/s) and an approximate plane of sky speed
of 800 km/s using LASCO C3 imagery. The majority of the ejecta was
directed off the North East limb. Two more CMEs were observed at
25/0236Z and 25/0312Z off the Southwest limb in LASCO C2 imagery,
however, they are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
at high levels with a chance for isolated X-class flares from Region
1302.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. At approximately 25/1106Z,
the IMF Bt increased from 5 nT to 10 nT while the field
density increased to around 7 p/cc at the ACE spacecraft. A sudden
impulse (14 nT) was observed in the Boulder magnetometer at 25/1151Z.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 23/2255Z, reached
a peak of 27.3 PFUs at 25/2030Z, and continues to remain above the
10 PFU threshold.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions with major
storm periods possible at high latitudes on day 1 (26 September) due
to activity from the CME associated with the M7 flare that occurred
at 24/1320Z. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on days 2-3
(27-28 September) due to continued activity from the CME as well as
a possible glancing blow from a weak CME on day 3. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to remain above threshold
for the next three days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Sep till 28 Sep
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 80% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Sep 169 Prognoserat 26 Sep-28 Sep 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 108
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Sep 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 025/030-012/012-008/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Sep till 28 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
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