Viewing archive of lördag, 10 september 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Sep 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 253 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Sep 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A significant filament
eruption (N10W48) occurred around 10/0300Z with an associated
partial-halo CME (plane-of-sky speed of 620 km/s). Region 1283
(N13W73) produced an M1/Sn at 10/0740Z with an associated limb-event
CME. Analysis of the potential geoeffectiveness of these CMEs is on
going. Region 1283 shows penumbral growth. Region 1289 (N23E24)
produced B and C class activity, and has shown trailer spot decay.
New Region 1291 (N23W03) was numbered during the period and produced
a B-class flare.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the period (11 - 13 September) with a slight
chance for another X-class flare from Region 1283 and developing
Region 1289.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Activity was most likely due to continuing CME effects. ACE data
showed that Bt peaked at 20nT, Bz dipped south to -13nT, density
spiked to 16p/cc, wind speeds ranged between 382 - 553 km/s, and
temperature remained high, but decreased between 10/0330 - 1400Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on day 1
(11 September) as CME effects subside, but a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become geoeffective.
Unsettled activity is expected to continue on days 2 and 3 (12 - 13
September) under the effects of the CH HSS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Sep till 13 Sep
| M-klass | 65% | 60% | 55% |
| X-klass | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Sep 116 Prognoserat 11 Sep-13 Sep 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 099
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Sep 013/036 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Sep 022/030 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 012/015-008/008-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Sep till 13 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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