Viewing archive of torsdag, 8 september 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Sep 08 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 251 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 Sep 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1283 (N16W42) produced
two major flares. The first was an X1/3b at 07/2238Z associated with
weak Types II and IV radio sweeps, a 1300 sfu Tenflare, and a
non-Earth-directed CME. The second was an M6/1n at 08/1546Z
associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep. Region 1283 maintained a
weak delta magnetic within the northern portion of its leader spots
and showed trailer spot development during the period. Region 1289
(N21E51) also showed trailer spot development during the period. No
new regions were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (09 - 11 September) with a chance for
another X-class flare from Region 1283.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels until late on day 1 (09 September).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels late on 09
September with a chance for active levels due to a CME arrival. A
further increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance for
minor storm levels is expected on day 2 (10 September) as the CME
passage continues. A decrease to unsettled levels is expected on day
3 (11 September). There will be a chance for a greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit on day 1.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 Sep till 11 Sep
| M-klass | 75% | 70% | 65% |
| X-klass | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 08 Sep 110 Prognoserat 09 Sep-11 Sep 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 099
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 07 Sep 005/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 08 Sep 004/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 010/012-020/022-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 Sep till 11 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 01% |
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