Viewing archive of torsdag, 18 augusti 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Aug 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 230 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Aug 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Both Regions 1271 (N15E38) and
1272 (S22E41) produced C1/Sf flares during the past 24 hours.
Region 1271 became more consolidated during the period, but remained
a large Ehc type spot group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity. The continued persistence of
Region 1271, as well as the return of old Region 1261 on Day 2 (20
Aug), make moderate activity more probable. During the last
rotation, old Region 1261 produced five M-class events including an
M9 and CME on 04 August.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet and the ambient solar wind
unremarkable. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the first two days of the
forecast period (19-20 Aug). A recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream is expected to become geoeffective on Day 3 (21 Aug) leading
to unsettled conditions with a chance for active periods at high
latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Aug till 21 Aug
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Aug 098 Prognoserat 19 Aug-21 Aug 098/100/100 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Aug 006/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Aug 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Aug till 21 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 10% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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