Viewing archive of fredag, 17 juni 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jun 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 168 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Jun 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
1234 (S16W48) and Region 1236 (N17E33) each produced isolated
B-class x-ray flares. A B7 x-ray flare occurred near the SE limb at
17/0646Z. Region 1234 showed a gradual increase in interior spots
during the period and was classified as a Dsi group with a simple
bipolar magnetic structure. Region 1236 showed a gradual decrease in
magnetic complexity in its trailer portion and was classified as a
Dho with a beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were
numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were
observed during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (18 - 20 June) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. An active period
was observed during 07/0000 - 0300Z. A geomagnetic sudden impulse
(SI) was observed at Boulder at 17/0244Z (31 nT) and indicated the
arrival of the partial-halo CME observed on 14 June.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (18 June).
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 2 (19 June).
An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3 (20
June) as a coronal hole high-speed stream begins to disturb the
field.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Jun till 20 Jun
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Jun 104 Prognoserat 18 Jun-20 Jun 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Jun 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Jun 013/013 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 007/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Jun till 20 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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