Viewing archive of lördag, 4 juni 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jun 04 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 155 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Jun 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S21W25) produced
a C1 at 03/2242Z. This region remains a D-type group with a beta
magnetic classification. All other numbered regions remained stable.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for a M-class event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The ACE spacecraft
detected an interplanetary shock passage at 04/1958Z. Solar winds
jumped from around 325 km/s to 455 km/s, density increased, and the
IMF Bt went from 5nT to 20 nT. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was
observed at 04/2045Z (54 nT) on the Boulder USGS magnetometer. This
signature is consistent with the arrival of a CME. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm conditions,
and isolated major storming at high-latitudes, for day one (05
June). The source for the activity is a combination of continued
CME effects, and the arrival of a geoeffective coronal hole
high-speed stream. For day two (06 June) the geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions.
By day three (07 June) mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected
as the activity subsides.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Jun till 07 Jun
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Jun 103 Prognoserat 05 Jun-07 Jun 102/100/098 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 107
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Jun 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Jun 008/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 020/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Jun till 07 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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