Viewing archive of onsdag, 11 maj 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 May 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 131 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 May 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A B8 x-ray flare occurred
at 11/0243Z, likely associated with a filament eruption between
Regions 1205 (N14W75) and 1207 (N21W51). The flare was associated
with a Type II radio sweep and a partial-halo coronal mass ejection
(CME). The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 420 km/s,
based on SOHO/LASCO images. No significant changes occurred in any
of the spotted regions. New Region 1212 (S13E46) was numbered and
was classified as a single-spot Axx region.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (12 - 14 May) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind
data indicated Earth remained under the influence of a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds ranged
from 352 to 414 km/sec with no discernible trend. A slight increase
in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux occurred in the wake of the
B8 flare mentioned above.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (12 May) with
a chance for minor storm levels as the CH HSS persists. The CME
observed late on 09 May may also disturb the field on May 12.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day
2 (13 May) as the CH HSS begins to subside. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (14 May). The CME observed today
is not expected to affect the field during the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 May till 14 May
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 May 094 Prognoserat 12 May-14 May 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 11 May 110
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 May 005/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 May 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 015/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 May till 14 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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