Viewing archive of måndag, 21 mars 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Mar 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 080 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Mar 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Isolated
C-class flares were observed, the largest of which was a
long-duration C4 at 21/1719Z from newly-numbered Region 1176
(S13E81). Region 1176 was the return of old Region 1165, which
produced M-class flares during its previous rotation. SOHO/LASCO
images showed a halo-CME, first visible in C2 images at 21/0236Z.
The halo-CME was determined to be a backside event associated with a
flare from old Region 1169 (N20, L=061).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (22 - 24 March) with a chance for an M-class flare
from Region 1176.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 21/1950Z and was in
progress at the time of this report. Stereo-A EUVI 195 images
indicated the source for the proton event was likely a flare from
old Region 1169 which also spawned the back sided halo-CME mentioned
above.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (22 - 23 March).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (24 March) as a coronal hole high-speed stream
begins to disturb the field. The greater than 10 MeV event at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to end on day 1 (March 22).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Mar till 24 Mar
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 Mar 101 Prognoserat 22 Mar-24 Mar 115/125/135 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Mar 004/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 21 Mar 002/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Mar till 24 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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