Viewing archive of torsdag, 10 mars 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Mar 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 069 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Mar 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity was high. An X1/2b flare was observed
at 09/2323Z from Region 1166 (N08W26). This region grew slightly
during the period and was classified as an Ekc type sunspot group
with Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1169 (N20E04)
decayed slightly and ended the period as an Eai type group with
Beta-Gamma characteristics. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class x-ray event from Region
1166 or 1169 for the next three days (11-13 March).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active at middle latitudes and
briefly reached severe storm levels at high latitudes. The
geomagnetic disturbance was likely caused by the arrival of the 07
March CME. The CME shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 06Z accompanied by a slight increase in wind speed to
360 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
turned southward and averaged -9nT from 10/06Z to 10/09Z. The 10
MeV proton greater than 10 pfu event that began 08/0105Z ended at
10/1210Z with a maximum flux of 50 pfu at 08/0800Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days with a
slight chance for minor to major storm conditions at high latitudes.
Lingering effects from the CME passage are expected on days one and
two (11-12 March) and a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to become geoeffective on day three (13 March).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Mar till 13 Mar
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Mar 131 Prognoserat 11 Mar-13 Mar 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 092
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Mar 002/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Mar 012/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 010/018-007/010-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Mar till 13 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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