Viewing archive of tisdag, 8 mars 2011

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 067 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 Mar 2011

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 1170 (S26W68) and Region 1171 (S19E69). Region 1171 is a spotless plage region which produced an M1 event at 08/0358Z with a non-earth directed CME off the east limb, and an associated Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 1165 (S18W92) produced an M5/1f flare at 08/1044Z. This region, along with Regions 1164 (N23W71) and 1166 (N11W01) continue to maintain their Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The SOHO/LASCO and STEREO imagery have observed several CMEs over the past 24 hours from Regions 1164 and 1165. After further analysis from yesterday, there was an associated fast halo CME correlated with the M3 event at 07/2012Z which was determined to be earth directed. Region 1165 has an M1 event in progress at this report time which started at 08/1946Z. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90 day mean are estimated for today (08 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be high for 09 March. Activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class events for 10-11 March.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The M3 event at 07/2012Z mentioned in Part IA produced a proton event at the greater than 10 Mev flux at geosynchronous orbit which is still in progress. Protons crossed event threshold at 08/0120Z and so far have reached a peak flux of 50 pfu at 08/0800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated periods of minor storm levels for days one and two (09-10 March). The increase in activity is expected due to the effects from the CME associated with the M3 event observed on 07/2012Z. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (11 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for most of days one and two (09-10 March).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 Mar till 11 Mar
M-klass75%50%40%
X-klass10%05%05%
Proton99%75%50%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       08 Mar 155
  Prognoserat   09 Mar-11 Mar  150/145/145
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 091
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 07 Mar  007/010
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  005/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  020/025-020/022-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 Mar till 11 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%35%35%
Små stormförhållanden25%25%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%05%

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