Viewing archive of söndag, 12 december 2010
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2010 Dec 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 346 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Dec 2010IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A filament eruption
occurred in the southwest quadrant and was first observed in
STEREO-A imagery at about 12/0330Z. Coincident with the eruption was
a long duration B4 x-ray event that peaked at 12/0628Z. During the
past 24 hours, three separate CMEs were observed in LASCO C2
imagery. The first was observed departing the southwest limb at
12/0412Z. Subsequent CMEs were observed departing from the northeast
limb at 12/0524Z and from the southeast limb at 12/0612Z. The
remainder of the disk and limb was largely unchanged.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for a C-class event from Region 1131
(N31W58), for the next 3 days (13-15 December).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. At approximately
12/1500Z, the field became unsettled to active in response to the
arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods,
for Day 1 (13 December). A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for Days 2 and 3 (14-15 December) as the coronal hole high
speed stream departs. At this time, the three CMEs observed in the
past 24 hours are not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Dec till 15 Dec
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Dec 089 Prognoserat 13 Dec-15 Dec 090/090/088 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Dec 001/001 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 007/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Dec till 15 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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