Viewing archive of måndag, 12 april 2010

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2010 Apr 12 2201 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 102 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Apr 2010

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. New Region 1062 (S18W05) was numbered today as a small sunspot group but was beginning to decay at the end of the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (13-15 April).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during the past 24 hours. Activity levels began the interval at unsettled to active levels, but a strong substorm occurred between 0000-0300Z with major to severe storm levels at many of the observatories. Active to minor storm levels prevailed for 0300-0900Z and quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the interval from 0900-2100Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed the continuation of yesterdays disturbed flow associated with the 08 April CME. Of particular note was the northward turning of the Bz component at 0142Z which was preceded by about 13 hours of moderately southward Bz (-5 to -10 nT), evidently triggering the substorm which started shortly after 0200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with periods of unsettled levels for the first day (13 April). Quiet levels are expected to prevail for the second and third days (14-15 April).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Apr till 15 Apr
M-klass01%01%01%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       12 Apr 075
  Prognoserat   13 Apr-15 Apr  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        12 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Apr  008/008
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 12 Apr  018/022
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Apr till 15 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%10%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%

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