Viewing archive of torsdag, 4 februari 2010
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2010 Feb 04 2201 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 035 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Feb 2010IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1043 (N26W33)
remains stable and has not produced any significant activity within
the past 24 hours. The return of old region 1040 remains evident in
EIT and SXI imagery, however, no spots have been reported. There is
a coronal hole visible in the northeast sector of the disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar Activity is expected to remain
very low with only a slight chance for a C-class event for the next
three days (5-7 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with two periods of unsettled
conditions from 04/0000Z-04/0300Z and 04/0600Z-0900Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day 1 (5 February). An increase to
unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions is expected on
day 2 (6 February), and unsettled to active conditions with a slight
chance for minor storming is expected on day 3 (07 February). The
increase in activity is forecast due to possible effects from the
CME observed on 02 February, as well as the coronal hole mentioned
in part 1A.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Feb till 07 Feb
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Feb 074 Prognoserat 05 Feb-07 Feb 075/077/080 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Feb 007/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-008/010-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Feb till 07 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 25% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 15% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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