Viewing archive of fredag, 28 september 2007
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2007 Sep 28 2203 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 271 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Sep 2007IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Newly numbered Region 971 (N03E07) emerged on
disk and is a small, C-type sunspot group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active from 27/2100Z through
28/1200Z. Conditions were quiet from 1200-1800Z but returned to
unsettled to active from 1800-2100Z. Real-time solar wind
measurements from ACE showed a steady increase in solar wind speed
from about 27/1700Z through about 28/0900Z. After 0900Z solar wind
speed began to decline, but a second increase in speed and total
field began around 1500Z and has continued through forecast issue
time 28/2100Z. Both increases show signatures consistent with a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with a chance for minor storm periods
at high latitudes for the first day (29 September) due to the
continuation of the high speed stream. Activity is expected to
decrease to mostly unsettled levels for the second day (30
September) and should be quiet to unsettled on the third day (01
October).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Sep till 01 Oct
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 28 Sep 067 Prognoserat 29 Sep-01 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Sep 010/019 Förväntat Afr/Ap 28 Sep 015/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 020/025-010/012-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Sep till 01 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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