Viewing archive of lördag, 19 november 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Nov 19 2204 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 323 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Nov 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 822 (S08W12) produced
two C-class flares. A C5.8/Sf flare occurred at 18/2357Z, and a
C1.5 S/f flare occurred at 19/2019Z. The region continues to decay
slowly. New Region 823 (S18W37) was numbered today. This emerging
flux region developed rapidly in the last 24 hours. CME activity
observed today on LASCO imagery appears to have originated from
back-sided events.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 822 may still be capable of producing an M-class
flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with periods of active
conditions occurring after 19/1500Z due to a solar sector boundary
crossing.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible on 21 November due to a solar sector boundary
crossing. There is a slight chance that weak transient effects,
resulting from the disappearing solar filament which occurred late
on 16 November, may enhance activity on 21 November.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Nov till 22 Nov
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Nov 102 Prognoserat 20 Nov-22 Nov 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Nov 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 007/008-012/015-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Nov till 22 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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