Viewing archive of tisdag, 4 oktober 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Oct 04 2204 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 277 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Oct 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Old active
Region 808 (S10, L=232) is rotating into view on the southeast limb
and still appears relatively complex. Several B-class flares were
observed including a long-duration B7 flare at 04/0622Z. This
long-duration event was associated with a prominence eruption and
CME on the southeast limb. A large loop structure was also observed
near this location on EIT imagery. Newly numbered Region 813
(S06E30) emerged this period as a moderately complex and compact
beta-gamma group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Old Region 808, which is currently rotating onto the visible disk,
may produce C-class activity. Newly numbered Region 813 also has
C-class flare potential. There is a slight chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 05 October. Isolated unsettled to active
periods are possible on 06 and 07 October.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Oct till 07 Oct
| M-klass | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Oct 083 Prognoserat 05 Oct-07 Oct 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 090
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 005/005-008/008-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Oct till 07 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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