Viewing archive of lördag, 10 september 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Sep 10 2204 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 253 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Sep 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 808 (S09E44)
produced an impulsive X1 major flare at 10/1643Z with an associated
Tenflare of 600 sfu. Further significant activity included an M4/1n
at 10/1936Z, an M3/1f at 10/0614Z, and an M1 at 10/0907Z. This
region continues to exhibit an extremely complex and compact spot
group with 1400 millionths of area visible in white light. Magnetic
analysis continues to depict a very strong beta-gamma-delta
configuration in the dominant central penumbral spot. Region 809
(N10E34) was quiescent during the period. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
high levels. Region 808 is expected to continue to produce major
flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Southward Bz and continued transient flow are responsible for the
elevated conditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began on 08/0215Z reached a peak flux of 1040 pfu at 10/1105Z. The
greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 08/0405Z reached a
peak flux of 7 pfu at 09/1920Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated major
storm conditions may be possible on 11 September due to the full
halo CME observed on 09 September, which was related to the X6/2b
major flare. Isolated minor storm conditions are expected to
continue on 12-13 September due to ongoing transient flow and a
recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the next three days. The greater than
100 MeV proton event is expected to end late on 11 September.
Further major flare activity could prolong the proton events.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Sep till 13 Sep
| M-klass | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| X-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Sep 100 Prognoserat 11 Sep-13 Sep 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 091
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Sep 012/017 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Sep 016/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 020/030-015/020-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Sep till 13 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
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