Viewing archive of onsdag, 31 augusti 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Aug 31 2204 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 243 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 31 Aug 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 803 (N11W13)
produced a long duration C2 x-ray event that occurred at 31/1151Z.
This event was followed by a full halo CME that was first observed
at 31/1100Z by LASCO imagery. Region 803 continues to show decay
and is down to 20 millionths of sunspot area. Region 806 (S17E23)
was limited to B-class flare activity and has shown slight decay in
sunspot coverage. The magnetic gamma structure remains intact
although it has weakened since yesterday. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions ensued following a sustained southward Bz
(ranging between -10 and -20 nT) which began just after 31/1000Z.
This activity is believed to be in response to a corotating
interaction region. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. A coronal hole may
keep conditions elevated throughout the period. Isolated major
storm conditions may be possible on 2 September due to the effects
of the full halo CME from the long duration C2 x-ray event that
occurred today.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 Sep till 03 Sep
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 31 Aug 084 Prognoserat 01 Sep-03 Sep 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Aug 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 31 Aug 018/032 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/020-025/030-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 Sep till 03 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 45% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 15% |
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