Viewing archive of måndag, 1 augusti 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Aug 01 2204 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 213 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Aug 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 792
(N12E25) produced the largest flare during the period, a long
duration M1/1f flare that occurred at 01/1351Z. This event
generated an associated Tenflare (290 sfu), a Type IV radio sweep,
and a CME that may have a weak geoeffective component. Region 792
underwent a decrease in sunspot number however, sunspot area has
remained the same. This region continues to exhibit
beta-gamma-delta magnetic features. Region 794 (S11E60) produced
the second largest flare during the period, a C5 x-ray event that
occurred at 01/1221Z. This region has shown growth in sunspot area
over the interval. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 792 is capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
activity may be attributed to a weak transient that was observed at
the ACE spacecraft at approximately 01/0500Z. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 27/2300Z ended at 01/1040Z, a maximum
of 41 pfu occurred at 29/1715Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 04 August due to a glancing blow
from the CME that was associated with the M1/1f flare that occurred
today.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Aug till 04 Aug
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Aug 111 Prognoserat 02 Aug-04 Aug 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 31 Jul 010/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Aug 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 012/015-005/005-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Aug till 04 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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