Viewing archive of onsdag, 27 juli 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jul 27 2205 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 208 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Jul 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M3.7 flare was
observed at 27/0502 UTC with an associated Type II and Type IV radio
sweep, and a 800 sfu Tenflare. This event was correlated with a
full halo CME observed by LASCO imagery from around the east limb.
This activity indicates the likely return of old Region 786
(N10,L=56) which is due to return on the visible solar disk 28 July.
The only visible numbered spot group on the disk at this time is
Region 791 (N13W06). It remains a beta magnetic classification and
has decreased slightly in both area and sunspot count.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The returning region on the east limb may produce C-
and M-class events with a chance for an isolated X-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active conditions. In the past 24
hours the solar wind speed has increased from around 300 km/s to
above 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating southward to -12 nT.
This may be the onset of a high speed stream from a recurrent
coronal hole.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active
periods as the coronal hole high speed stream continues to be
geoeffective.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Jul till 30 Jul
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 Jul 091 Prognoserat 28 Jul-30 Jul 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Jul 004/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 27 Jul 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 010/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Jul till 30 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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