Viewing archive of fredag, 8 juli 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jul 08 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 189 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 Jul 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 786 (N12W17) produced a
long duration C1.6 event at 08/1618 UTC. There was also a reported
Type IV radio sweep which may be associated with this flare. The
event was optically correlated with the GOES solar x-ray imager
data. Region 786 continues to be the largest group on the disk and
exhibits a magnetic delta configuration. A CME is currently
observed in the LASCO imagery at 08/1922 UTC. Limited data at this
time does not allow for a complete analysis of the source for this
activity. The main trajectory seems to be off the west limb.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 remains a likely source for an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 09-10 July. The increased levels of
activity are expected due to effects from the observed CME's between
05-07 July, and the possible influence from a coronal hole high
speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 11
July.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 Jul till 11 Jul
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 08 Jul 110 Prognoserat 09 Jul-11 Jul 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 020/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 Jul till 11 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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