Viewing archive of måndag, 4 juli 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jul 04 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 185 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Jul 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
two, low-level C-class events. The first was a C1/Sf at 03/2111 UT
from Region 787 (S11W58) and the second was a C1 at 04/2037 UT from
Region 782 (S18W56). Both of these regions are small and appear to
be decaying. Region 783 (S03W07) continues to be the largest on the
disk but was in decay today. The group appears to have simplified to
a beta magnetic configuration and did not produce any flares. New
Region 789 (N18E74) rotated into view today, accompanied by surging
on the limb and frequent low-level brightenings. Region 786 (N12E36)
showed growth today and appears to have a magnetic delta
configuration in the leading group of spots. Despite the complexity
in 786 the group did not produce any flare activity.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there continues to be a chance for an isolated M-class event,
with Regions 786 or Region 783 the most likely source.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field should be
mostly quiet for the next three days (05-07 July).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Jul till 07 Jul
| M-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Jul 124 Prognoserat 05 Jul-07 Jul 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Jul 009/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Jul till 07 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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