Viewing archive of måndag, 13 juni 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jun 14 0030 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 164 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Jun 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 775 (N10W46) and
776 (S06W34) are both in decay. LASCO imagery showed a CME at
13/1600 UTC. The ejecta was directed to the north west and is not
likely to be geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm conditions.
Periods of major storming levels were observed at 12/2100 - 2400 UTC
and again at 13/0300 - 0600 UTC. Heightened activity was due to a
prolonged southward Bz in response to CME activity from 08 June. By
the end of the period conditions had quieted down to unsettled
levels and the Bz component of the Magnetic field did not vary
beyond +/- 5 Nt. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 14 June. The arrival of a CME
associated with C-class X-ray activity early on 12 June is expected
early on 15 June causing unsettled to active conditions with periods
of minor storming possible. Activity is expected to settle down to
quiet to active levels on 16 June.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Jun till 16 Jun
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Jun 092 Prognoserat 14 Jun-16 Jun 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Jun 023/035 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Jun 020/030 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 010/012-015/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Jun till 16 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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