Viewing archive of söndag, 5 juni 2005

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jun 05 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 156 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Jun 2005

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to three C-class events. The first was a C2 at 2225 UTC from newly numbered Region 776 (S05E71). The second was a C1/Sf at 0328 UTC from Region 772 (S18W18), and the third was a C3 at 1350 UTC from Region 776. Region 776 rotated into view today as a moderate-sized D-type group and was the most active region on the disk. Region 772 (S18W18) appears to have become less complex during the past 24 hours.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from 772 or 776 during the next three days (06-08 June).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind data indicate the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal hole, beginning at about 2300 UTC. The high speed stream resulted in increased geomagnetic activity and led to a single, minor storm interval from 0600-0900 UTC. Conditions have been quiet to unsettled since 0900 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods for the next two days (06-07 June), due to persistence of the high speed stream and due to possible effects from the recent eruptive solar events of 03/0411 UTC (M1/CME) and 03/2355 UTC (C6/Type II/Type IV). Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the third day (08 June).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Jun till 08 Jun
M-klass20%20%20%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       05 Jun 105
  Prognoserat   06 Jun-08 Jun  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        05 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Jun  012/018
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 05 Jun  015/020
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  015/020-015/020-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Jun till 08 Jun
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%20%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%35%25%
Små stormförhållanden25%25%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%05%

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