Viewing archive of fredag, 13 maj 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 May 13 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 133 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 May 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 759 (N12E06) produced
an M8/2b flare at 13/1657 UTC. The flare was associated with
significant radio output that included type II/IV sweeps and a 2900
sfu burst at 2695 MHz. This event was also associated with an
apparent Earth-directed CME. Region 758 (S09W81) only managed to
generate a few minor flares over the past 24 hours.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Most activity is expected to occur in Regions 758 and
759.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is enhanced from the M8 flare
discussed in Part IA but has not yet crossed the 10 pfu event
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was high.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours.
Storm conditions are possible on 15 and 16 May due to the CME
associated with the M8 flare in Region 759. There is a chance that
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could surpass the 10 pfu event
threshold on 14 May due to the same major event.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 May till 16 May
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 May 126 Prognoserat 14 May-16 May 120/110/100 90 Day Mean 13 May 093
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 May 013/017 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 May 025/028 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 012/015-050/075-030/040
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 May till 16 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 50% | 50% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 60% | 60% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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