Viewing archive of lördag, 7 maj 2005

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 May 08 1530 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 127 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 May 2005

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 756 (S07W88) produced an impulsive M1 flare at 07/0813 UTC. Region 758 (S07E10) appears to have simplified somewhat over the past 24 hours and has generated only a few small B and C-class flares. A new region rotating onto the disk near NE11 has produced a few B and C-class flares as well. Sunspots associated with this region have not yet been reported and the region is not yet numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. B and C-class flares are possible in Regions 756 and 758, as well as the new region near N11E90. Another small M-class flare is possible from 756.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A small Sudden Impulse was observed at many ground locations (6 nT at Boulder) at about 07/1844 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active over the next three days (08-10 May) due to the influence of the CME on 06 May and an anticipated coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 May till 10 May
M-klass20%20%20%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       07 May 100
  Prognoserat   08 May-10 May  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        07 May 093
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 06 May  003/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 07 May  005/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  020/025-020/025-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 May till 10 May
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%50%50%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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