Viewing archive of lördag, 19 februari 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Feb 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 050 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Feb 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M3
x-ray flare occurred at 19/1101Z from just beyond the solar west
limb. The source of this flare appears to be from the vicinity of
Region 732 (N08 L=188) which rotated out of view early yesterday.
Region 735 (S09W45) underwent a slight decay in overall sunspot
coverage today while the southern most penumbral mass had a
noticeable increase in area. Magnetic analysis indicates Region 735
has the characteristics of a beta-gamma class group. The remaining
active regions were quiescent today. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 735 has the potential of producing isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels today. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is the most likely source
for the active conditions. The solar wind speeds have ranged from
550 km/s down to 450 km/s throughout the period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high
levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Feb till 22 Feb
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Feb 099 Prognoserat 20 Feb-22 Feb 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Feb 014/025 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Feb 010/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 008/010-005/005-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Feb till 22 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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