Viewing archive of söndag, 16 januari 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jan 16 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 016 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Jan 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N13W15) produced
several flares throughout the day. The largest was an X2/3B at
15/2302 UTC. This flare was associated with significant radio output
that included 6400 sfu at 2695 MHz and type II/IV radio sweeps.
There was also an asymmetric full halo CME associated with this
event. The region remains large and magnetically complex, showing
little structural changes since this major flare. New Regions 721
(S03E14) and 722 (N19E04) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be high
to very high. Region 720 appears capable of additional major flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A proton
event at greater than 10 MeV began at 16/0210 UTC in response to the
X2 flare mentioned in Part IA and remains in progress. Peak flux
observed so far was 312 pfu at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was high.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to increase to major to severe storm levels within the
next several hours with the arrival of the first of at least two
expected CMEs generated over the past few days by Region 720. The
proton event is expected to continue in progress.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Jan till 19 Jan
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 80% | 75% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 16 Jan 145 Prognoserat 17 Jan-19 Jan 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 107
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Jan 011/022 Förväntat Afr/Ap 16 Jan 015/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 050/060-030/030-030/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Jan till 19 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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