Viewing archive of fredag, 17 december 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Dec 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 352 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Dec 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 710 (S07W72) has
shown a slight increase in area and spot number, but remains quiet.
New regions 712 (S10E50) and 713 (S10E70) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from the new
regions near the southeast limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with a period of
minor storming between 17/0300Z and 17/0600Z. The active to minor
storm levels were due to the continued influence of a geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream. There was an increase in the solar
wind speed at ACE from approximately 550 km/s to 650 km/s during the
reporting period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible at
high latitudes on 18 December. Expect quiet to unsettled with
isolated active conditions on 19 December as the high speed coronal
hole stream subsides. Expect quiet to unsettled levels on 20
December.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Dec till 20 Dec
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Dec 090 Prognoserat 18 Dec-20 Dec 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Dec 008/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Dec 014/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 008/015-006/008-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Dec till 20 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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