Viewing archive of fredag, 19 november 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Nov 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 324 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Nov 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C4.9 flare was observed at
19/0512 UTC from Region 700, located at N04 on the West limb.
Region 700 was responsible for several lesser C-flares during the
reporting period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
increased from approximately 330 km/s to 400 km/s during the
reporting period. Total magnetic field increased to approximately
18 nT, however, Bz has remained predominantly positive. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions on
20 and 21 November due to the effects from a geoeffective coronal
hole stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 22 November.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Nov till 22 Nov
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Nov 102 Prognoserat 20 Nov-22 Nov 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/003 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 008/012-010/015-004/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Nov till 22 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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