Viewing archive of tisdag, 2 november 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Nov 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 307 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Nov 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a
few C-class events. The largest of these were a C6 at 0143 UTC from
Region 687 (N12W90+) and a C9 at 0947 UTC from Region 689 (N10W81).
Region 693 (S14W05) continues to be the largest group on the disk
but is magnetically simple and could only produce a low-level
C-flare. Region 696 (N08E47) is growing and also produced a
low-level C-flare.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a chance for isolated M-class events from
Region 691 or from Region 693.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind data do not
indicate the arrival of a shock or transient flow from the activity
of 30 October. There does appear to be a sector boundary crossing at
about 1800 UTC. Greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes stayed below event
level (10 PFU) but were elevated relative to normal background
levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for some isolated active
periods during the next three days (03-05 November). Today's sector
boundary change is likely to be a prelude to a negative polarity
coronal hole stream which should result in an increase in
geomagnetic activity.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Nov till 05 Nov
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Nov 133 Prognoserat 03 Nov-05 Nov 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 108
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Nov 004/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Nov 005/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Nov till 05 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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