Viewing archive of lördag, 18 september 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Sep 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 262 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Sep 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 673 (S13E35) produced
the only C-class activity of the period, a single C1 flare at
18/1609Z. Occasional B-class flares were also observed from this
region and from Region 672 (N06W45). Region 673 is a moderate size
beta group that exhibited little change this period. Region 672 has
decayed considerably over the past 48 hours. No other significant
activity or changes were noted.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Isolated C-class activity is possible from Regions 672
and 673.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with a
period of major storming between 18/0000 - 0300Z. The storm levels
were in response to a prolonged period of southward IMF Bz and solar
wind speeds near 500 km/s. The geomagnetic field was predominantly
quiet to end the period as the solar wind speed declined to 420 km/s
and IMF Bz was sustained north. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Sep till 21 Sep
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Sep 103 Prognoserat 19 Sep-21 Sep 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 18 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Sep 015/020 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Sep 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 010/012-008/010-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Sep till 21 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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