Viewing archive of måndag, 13 september 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Sep 13 2230 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 257 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Sep 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low. A C1.1 X-ray flare
occurred from Region 667 (S10W85) at 12/2227 UTC. A C1.0 flare
occurred from Region 669 (S04W81) at 13/0008 UTC. A C1.4 flare
occurred from Region 672 (N04E22) at 1339 UTC. No significant
development was observed from regions on the visible disk. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares from Region 672 are possible.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A shock passage
was observed at ACE at approximately 13/1935 UTC. Magnetic field at
ACE was observed to increase significantly to over 20 nT at the time
of the shock arrival at ACE, although Bz remained about zero. A 24
nT sudden impulse was observed at 2003 UTC. A 10 MeV proton event
occurred at 2005 UTC in association with the sudden impulse.
Unsettled magnetic conditions were observed subsequent to the sudden
impulse.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at minor to major storming levels on 14 September,
due to the effects of a CME arrival. Conditions should subside to
quiet to active levels on 15 and 16 of September, although isolated
minor storm conditions are possible on those days from the effects
of a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Sep till 16 Sep
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Sep 118 Prognoserat 14 Sep-16 Sep 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Sep 001/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Sep 015/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 040/050-020/030-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Sep till 16 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 30% | 20% | 10% |
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