Viewing archive of söndag, 15 augusti 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Aug 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 228 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Aug 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels today. Region 656
(S13W48) produced multiple M-class flares again today, the largest
was an M9/1n that occurred at 15/1241Z that had an associated faint
CME seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery emanating from the southwest solar
quadrant. This CME does not appear to be Earth-directed. Sun spot
area showed a slight increase from yesterday and the
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure has undergone little change over
the past 24 hours. The remainder of the active regions were
quiescent throughout the period. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains capable of producing
isolated major flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions may occur throughout the period due to the
potential of weak flanking blows from the CME activity observed over
the past couple days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Aug till 18 Aug
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Aug 139 Prognoserat 16 Aug-18 Aug 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 108
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Aug 004/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Aug till 18 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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