Viewing archive of fredag, 30 juli 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jul 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 212 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Jul 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Old
Region 652 (N08, L=348) has rotated beyond the western solar limb
although it was the source for the C-class flare activity seen
earlier in the period. Region 654 (N08W15) went unchanged in spot
area and magnetic complexity. Several lesser B-class flares were
produced from this region today. Region 655 (S09E71) was numbered
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 654 is capable of producing C-class
flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A shock
passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 30/2030Z
and is believed to be in response to the very long duration C4 x-ray
flare that occurred at 28/0609Z. A sudden impulse of 25 nT occurred
at the Boulder magnetometer at 30/2115Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels again
today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A transient passage
may occur late on 31 July into 1 Aug allowing for isolated active
conditions resulting from the long duration C2 x-ray flare that
occurred on 29 July. Quiet levels are expected to return late on 1
Aug.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 Jul till 02 Aug
| M-klass | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 Jul 089 Prognoserat 31 Jul-02 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 106
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Jul 006/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 30 Jul 006/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 012/015-010/015-005/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 Jul till 02 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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