Viewing archive of söndag, 2 maj 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 May 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 123 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 May 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There has been a number
of C-class events produced by Region 601 (S10W47), with the largest
being a C8.3 on 02 May at 1115 UTC. There was a weak coronal mass
ejection (CME) produced by yesterday's C9.5, also produced by Region
601, that appears to have an earthward-directed component.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 601 continues to have a slight chance to produce an
M-class x-ray event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar
wind speeds fell to below 400 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic
field is holding steady northward.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for 03 May. A
high-speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole is
likely to graze the Earth's magnetic field. By 04 May, this should
pass, and magnetic activity should return to unsettled levels. With
the onset of the transient associated with the weak CME, activity
should again increase to active levels with periods of minor
storming for 05 May.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 May till 05 May
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 May 098 Prognoserat 03 May-05 May 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 02 May 107
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 May 008/013 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 May 008/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 015/020-012/015-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 May till 05 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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