Viewing archive of lördag, 10 april 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Apr 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 101 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Apr 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 588 (S15W38)
contains the only sunspots on the visible disk. This region
maintains a reverse polarity beta magnetic configuration, but has
been quiet since producing a C2 flare and CME at 09/2040Z. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 588.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed was in
gradual decline following yesterday's CME impact. Speed declined
from a peak near 570 km/s at 09/0505Z to near 400 km/s late in the
period. A sharp discontinuity in solar wind plasma and IMF
measurements occurred at 10/1925Z. This was likely the
interplanetary shock associated with the C7 flare and CME on 08
April. Solar wind speed following the shock ranged from 500 to 540
km/s, but the IMF BZ was mostly northward. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again this
period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Occasional active periods are
expected on 11 April following today's CME arrival. Updated LASCO
imagery reveal another Earth-directed CME associated with
yesterday's C2 flare at 09/2040Z. A geomagnetic response is likely
on 12 April, but the disturbance should be limited to occasional
active periods. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on
13 April.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Apr till 13 Apr
| M-klass | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Apr 088 Prognoserat 11 Apr-13 Apr 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 109
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Apr 011/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Apr 015/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 020/020-010/015-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Apr till 13 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 01% |
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