Viewing archive of fredag, 2 april 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Apr 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 093 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Apr 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
582 (N14W35) continues to decay and has lost the gamma magnetic
structure in the leading portion of the region. Region 587 (S13E11)
has been in a steady growth phase in sunspot area and produced a low
level B-class flare today. Region 581 (S05W41) and 588 (S12E64)
both produced low level B-class flares as well. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 587 has the potential of producing a low level
M-class event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 3 April. A shock
passage from the long duration C3 flare that occurred on 31 March is
expected to arrive on 4 April. Active to minor storm levels are
possible with the shock passage. On 5 April active to minor storm
levels are also expected due to a recurrent co-rotating interaction
region.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Apr till 05 Apr
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Apr 108 Prognoserat 03 Apr-05 Apr 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Apr 002/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Apr 002/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 005/007-015/020-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Apr till 05 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 45% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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