Viewing archive of onsdag, 4 februari 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Feb 04 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 035 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Feb 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 547 (S08W55) produced a
C9/1f event at 04/1118 UTC with an associated 350 sfu Tenflare. A
small CME was observed with this event, but did not appear to be
directed toward the Earth. This region has shown some decay since
yesterday.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The continued influence
of a high speed solar wind stream keeps the velocity averaging above
550 km/s and the Bz variable. There was a slight enhancement in the
low energy protons observed on the ACE spacecraft which correlate
with the C9 event at 04/1118 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet to unsettled with occasional active
periods for 05-06 February. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for 07 February as the affects of the high speed solar wind
stream subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Feb till 07 Feb
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Feb 101 Prognoserat 05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Feb 016/017 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Feb 015/016 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 015/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Feb till 07 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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