Viewing archive of tisdag, 13 januari 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jan 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 013 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Jan 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 536 (S12W18)
produced several low level C-class flares during the period.
Penumbral coverage continues to decrease as this region begins to
exit the west solar limb. Region 537 (N05W16) produced a C1/Sf
flare at 0609Z. The beta-gamma/delta magnetic structure remains
intact. Region 540 (S11E68) continues to rotate into view from the
solar east limb. A trailing cluster of spots became visible late in
the period and detailed analysis is still pending further rotation
of the region onto the disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are believed to be due to a transient passage
that occurred at the ACE spacecraft near 0900Z. The M-class
activity from early on 09 January may have been the source for this
event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Jan till 16 Jan
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Jan 118 Prognoserat 14 Jan-16 Jan 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Jan 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 008/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Jan till 16 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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