Viewing archive of fredag, 5 december 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Dec 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 339 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Dec 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Activity consisted
of minor C-class flares, the largest a C2 flare at 1019Z from Region
513 (N12W47). Region 517 (S06E07) is in a gradual decay phase,
decreasing slightly in area size from yesterday.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. At
approximately 0200Z the total field measurement of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) increased to 20 nT. The Bz
component of the IMF, after an initial northward direction, turned
southward for nearly ten hours, then began a north-south
oscillation. This signature is similar to that of a co-rotating
interaction region preceding the onset of a high speed stream, but
may include transient effects from a faint halo CME that occurred on
02 December. The ten hour period of southward Bz, together with
solar wind speed near 475 km/s produced minor storm levels for most
of the day.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Isolated periods
of minor storm levels are possible on 06-07 December. By 08
December, activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Dec till 08 Dec
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Dec 112 Prognoserat 06 Dec-08 Dec 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Dec 030/042 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 025/035-020/035-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Dec till 08 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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