Viewing archive of tisdag, 2 december 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Dec 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 336 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Dec 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. A number of
X-ray events occurred on the southwest limb between 0757Z and 1330Z.
The most likely source of this activity is Region 508 (S19, L=283)
on the west limb. A C7 flare occurred at 0948Z and was followed by
a significant long duration X-ray enhancement that peaked at 1145Z.
This long duration enhancement is the likely source of a greater
than 10 MeV proton event. An M1 flare was also observed at 1308Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance of a proton producing flare from
Region 508 beyond the west limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The long
duration X-ray enhancement produced a greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 1505Z and reached a peak flux of 86 pfu at
1730Z. Current flux levels are still above threshold level but in a
slow decline. A polar cap absorption is currently in progress.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 - 04 December. On
05 December activity may increase to active levels due to a coronal
hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began today is expected to end
on 03 December.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Dec till 05 Dec
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Dec 139 Prognoserat 03 Dec-05 Dec 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Dec 009/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Dec 008/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 008/010-008/010-012/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Dec till 05 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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