Viewing archive of fredag, 21 november 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Nov 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 325 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Nov 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Regions 507 (N09E36) and
508 (S18E47) produced several C-class flares, and Region 501
(N04W32) produced an M5.8/2b at 20/2354 UTC. A CME was observed on
LASCO associated with the M5 flare, although it was not directed at
the earth. No significant developments were observed with any
active region on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 501, 507, and 508 are capable of
producing major flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at major storm levels due to
the remaining effects of a CME arrival early on 20 November.
Activity diminished to unsettled levels by the end of the period.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit climbed
steadily during the period, and ended the period near the 10 pfu
threshold.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Isolated minor
storm conditions on 22 November may be caused by a CME shock arrival
originating from the M9 flare observed on 20 November. Isolated
minor storm conditions are also possible on 23 November due to the
effects of high speed solar wind streams associated with a coronal
hole moving into geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Nov till 24 Nov
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 Nov 177 Prognoserat 22 Nov-24 Nov 180/190/200 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Nov 067/117 Förväntat Afr/Ap 21 Nov 035/045 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 025/035-015/025-015/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Nov till 24 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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