Viewing archive of fredag, 3 oktober 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Oct 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 276 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Oct 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares
were observed this period from Region 471 (S08E35). This region
contains a moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. The lead spots
in this group were redefined as a separate active region and
assigned as Region 473 (S07E20). No other significant activity was
noted this period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 471 is the only region with any real potential for C-class
flares, and just a small chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with an isolated
minor storm period between 03/0300-0600Z. Solar wind speed is
slightly elevated (450 - 500 km/s) and IMF Bz is varying between +5
and -5 nT.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on days one and two with isolated
active periods possible due to weak coronal hole flow. Mostly
unsettled to active periods are likely on day three as the coronal
hole high speed flow becomes more pronounced.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Oct till 06 Oct
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Oct 120 Prognoserat 04 Oct-06 Oct 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Oct 004/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Oct 012/017 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/010-005/010-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Oct till 06 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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