Viewing archive of fredag, 26 september 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Sep 26 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 269 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 Sep 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04W07)
continues to grow and produce a series of low-level flare activity.
The disappearing solar filament which occurred yesterday at 0534 UTC
is apparently not Earth-directed, and should not impact as
previously expected.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 464 does harbor a slight chance for isolated M-class
flare activity, and an even slighter chance for an X-class event.
By the end of the day, it will reach a position which makes it a
very slight threat to produce an energetic proton event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole, which has induced a high-speed solar wind stream for
the last few days, is in its final stages, but continues to impact
the Earth's magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the remainder
of today and into tomorrow. Then it is expected to drop off to
quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active for later in
day two and into day three. The high-speed stream currently
impacting the Earth's magnetic field will continue to wane, but
still poses a threat to spike for a short period during day two.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 Sep till 29 Sep
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 26 Sep 131 Prognoserat 27 Sep-29 Sep 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 25 Sep 016/028 Förväntat Afr/Ap 26 Sep 020/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 020/030-015/020-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 Sep till 29 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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